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Prediction markets for The Invasion

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

39.61%chance

455062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

938

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.74%chance

212144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

174

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.57%chance

18804

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

614

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Mar 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17%chance

13511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

927

Will manifold users start referring to "Russia's invasion" instead of using the dumb phrase "war in Ukraine" this year?

Mar 29, 10:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.73%chance

11221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

930

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan during the leadership of the person in power after Xi Jinping?

Apr 29, 9:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.08%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

936

Will cheap, portable, general purpose non-invasive brain-computer interfaces be commercially available by the year 2030?

Sep 14, 12:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.16%chance

271154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

883

On the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, will the Russia-Ukraine war still be ongoing?

Apr 8, 7:58 PMFeb 25, 7:59 AM

85.82%chance

331958

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1397

883

Will the Russian invasion be over by 2025?

Jun 25, 10:20 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

14.51%chance

355158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

808

Will the War in Ukraine still be ongoing at the 3rd anniversary of the invasion?

Feb 23, 2:13 PMFeb 25, 7:59 AM

85.09%chance

15349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

930

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025?

Mar 3, 3:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.97%chance

152735

OptionVotes

NO

YES

959

816

When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? ($1000M sub)

Oct 2, 10:56 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

10019513

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