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The Curse News
Prediction markets for The Curse
Prediction markets for The Curse
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
Sep 23, 2:27 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
60%
chance
57
3628
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1035
914
Will the leading LLM at the beginning of 2026 still be subject to the reversal curse?
Sep 22, 9:36 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
57.67%
chance
30
1561
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1259
750
Will Guyana suffer from the oil curse by 2035?
Jun 19, 11:54 PM
Jan 1, 2:59 AM
32.23%
chance
15
418
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1177
861
In planecrash, what was the fourth Major Curse placed on Abrogail?
Dec 7, 5:58 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
19
1852
Will "The Pareto Best and the Curse of Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Feb 26, 2:29 AM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
14%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
100
The most cursed market on Manifold
Nov 22, 8:24 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
1
5
Will "The Pareto Best and the Curse of Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Feb 26, 2:29 AM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
18.74%
chance
1
5
Option
Votes
NO
YES
125
94
Which books in this list will I "really like"?
Mar 27, 3:20 PM
Mar 28, 6:59 AM
122
18313
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series (76th Emmy awards - September 15th)
May 26, 5:05 PM
Sep 15, 6:59 AM
5
254
What shows will win an Emmy in 2024? [Mega Market]
Apr 11, 12:27 AM
Sep 16, 6:59 AM
5
181
What words will Merriam-Webster add to their dictionary in 2024?
Apr 2, 3:03 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
52
7111
In 10 years will we look at AI as more of a blessing or a curse?
Nov 19, 2:32 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
8
391
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