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The Conversation News
Prediction markets for The Conversation
Prediction markets for The Conversation
Will Mike Johnson defend conversion therapy on the record as speaker?
Nov 4, 7:43 AM
Jan 7, 4:59 AM
25.73%
chance
17
503
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1014
986
Will ChatGPT conversation history be critical to the success of future OpenAI models? (Ṁ200 subsidy)
May 24, 5:55 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
75.53%
chance
16
370
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1213
902
Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?
Oct 4, 12:39 AM
Oct 11, 3:59 AM
80.11%
chance
23
535
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1180
928
Will Sam Seder and Destiny the streamer have a conversation in 2024?
Nov 25, 4:33 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
23.56%
chance
15
957
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1318
839
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?
May 27, 5:23 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
11.81%
chance
21
1981
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2733
366
Will AI enable a successful conversation between a human and a member of a non-human species by the end of 2030?
Oct 20, 5:08 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
54.2%
chance
52
5287
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1024
874
By 2027, will the presidents of the US and China participate in a conversation in which an LLM also participates?
Jan 16, 7:27 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
16%
chance
5
148
Option
Votes
YES
NO
179
81
Will The Nature Conservancy set up a fourth Global Debt Conversion by end of 2025?
Sep 27, 6:13 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
64.85%
chance
4
81
Option
Votes
NO
YES
174
114
In which of the following years will the net rate of chemical conversion of hydrogen into hydrocarbons be positive?
Nov 17, 4:49 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
8
257
Will there be AI-generated auto-conversion of the entire matplotlib library into Haskell by 2028?
Jan 7, 5:26 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
66.6%
chance
2
50
Option
Votes
NO
YES
122
66
When will Tyler Cowen have David Grusch as the guest on an episode of Conversations with Tyler?
Nov 29, 3:17 PM
Dec 6, 3:59 PM
5
699
In everyday conversation, do you call the social media site Twitter or X?
Feb 20, 6:12 PM
28
0
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