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Prediction markets for the Clash

Will there be a clash between Taiwanese and Chinese Coast Guard ships in the waters around Kinmen in 2024?

Mar 1, 4:15 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

31.57%chance

668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

268

157

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?

Oct 24, 7:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

29.52%chance

674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

79

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2026?

Oct 24, 7:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

24.62%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

86

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2032?

Oct 24, 7:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?

Oct 24, 7:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.84%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

55

During 2024, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Second Thomas Shoal?

Dec 10, 7:44 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

12.21%chance

8620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

360

141

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2025?

Oct 24, 7:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.43%chance

7102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

99

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2035?

Oct 24, 7:38 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

61.58%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

72

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?

Oct 24, 7:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

51.45%chance

680

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

105

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?

Oct 24, 7:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

72.34%chance

399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

163

76

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2030?

Oct 24, 7:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

33%chance

579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

74

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

6.85%chance

846140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1823

1536

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