The Challenger News

Who will accept the challenge by Rudyard Lynch (Whatifalthist) for a debate held by August 13, 2024?

May 21, 9:54 PMAug 14, 4:59 AM

2112181

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

92.59%chance

4813659

OptionVotes

YES

5343

792

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2024?

Dec 23, 12:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

66.2%chance

261887

OptionVotes

YES

1085

711

Will the CoolFold 100 Challenge get 1000 traders by EOY 2025?

Jan 7, 11:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.57%chance

12136

OptionVotes

YES

1063

963

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Sep 22, 7:51 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM

52.66%chance

11112

OptionVotes

YES

1002

997

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2025?

May 19, 5:35 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

24.03%chance

141792

OptionVotes

YES

1093

941

Will either Mark Cuban or Elon Musk challenge the other to some sort of competition before the end of 2024?

Feb 7, 12:17 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.74%chance

25550

OptionVotes

YES

1257

852

Will the Neuralink Compression Challenge Be Completed by the End of 2024?

May 24, 7:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.29%chance

122362

OptionVotes

YES

3325

301

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

61.72%chance

161097

OptionVotes

YES

1064

947

Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 (2021 USD) per unit before 2025?

Oct 22, 7:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13%chance

111115

OptionVotes

YES

1568

783

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2025?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

85.71%chance

291000

OptionVotes

YES

1213

931

Will the 2024 Vesuvius Challenge grand prize be claimed?

Feb 5, 7:40 PMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

87.49%chance

243710

OptionVotes

YES

1208

920

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The Challenger News

Prediction markets for The Challenger

Prediction markets for The Challenger

Prediction markets for The Challenger

Who will accept the challenge by Rudyard Lynch (Whatifalthist) for a debate held by August 13, 2024?

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2024?

Will the CoolFold 100 Challenge get 1000 traders by EOY 2025?

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2025?

Will either Mark Cuban or Elon Musk challenge the other to some sort of competition before the end of 2024?

Will the Neuralink Compression Challenge Be Completed by the End of 2024?

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 (2021 USD) per unit before 2025?

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2025?

Will the 2024 Vesuvius Challenge grand prize be claimed?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for The Challenger

Prediction markets for The Challenger

Prediction markets for The Challenger

Who will accept the challenge by Rudyard Lynch (Whatifalthist) for a debate held by August 13, 2024?

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2024?

Will the CoolFold 100 Challenge get 1000 traders by EOY 2025?

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2025?

Will either Mark Cuban or Elon Musk challenge the other to some sort of competition before the end of 2024?