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Prediction markets for The Believer

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

60%chance

18121792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2412

1287

Will more than 25% of US Adults believe the 2024 Election was illegitimate in February 2025?

Jan 4, 6:34 PMFeb 1, 1:29 PM

53.52%chance

13815871

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1961

1869

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.49%chance

607372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

994

If humanity survives to 2100, what will experts believe was the correct level of AI risk for us to assess in 2023?

Sep 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.19%chance

14189

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

932

1 year from the end of the "Bet on Love" dating show, will Manifold staff believe that it was a good idea?

Dec 12, 3:52 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

90%chance

10410165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5240

1525

Will Dan Hendrycks believe xAI has had a meaningful positive impact on AI alignment at the end of 2024?

Jul 12, 6:08 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

48.25%chance

211255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1799

891

When this market closes, will I believe that healthcare should be free at the point of use? (This market has a 10% chance of closing each year)

Nov 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.81%chance

19851

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1746

1218

By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

Dec 21, 4:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.02%chance

715312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2408

1150

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Nov 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

66.37%chance

35910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

903

At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Nov 17, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

65.54%chance

29724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

940

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Dec 23, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.6%chance

401892

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

810

By 2025, over 50% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

Jan 3, 9:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.43%chance

411962

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

980

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