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Prediction markets for Team Experience

Which of Casey Newton's 2024 predictions will come true? [Multiple Choice]

Dec 16, 10:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

19718467

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Jun 9, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.55%chance

141360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10098

9894

Will some factory farmed animals be made incapable of experiencing any physical or psychological suffering, by 2030?

Feb 10, 12:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.71%chance

22588

OptionVotes

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NO

1275

926

Will we (Mega Crit) regret making our next game in Godot?

Oct 10, 8:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12%chance

775206

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NO

1789

929

How many characters* will I make art of for Art Fight 2024?

Jun 25, 2:08 PMAug 1, 9:59 PM

30%chance

2542

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NO

1528

655

Will Extropic be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.29%chance

202251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1258

795

Will a South American country be the next world cup champion in 2026?

Nov 8, 5:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.35%chance

14295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

984

Will the first successful implant of a 3D-printed heart be performed before 2026?

Sep 13, 8:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.42%chance

16728

OptionVotes

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NO

1532

851

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

62.07%chance

17243

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1139

891

Will EA have an out-group-based conflict resolution / 'social ground truth' body before 2025?

Dec 13, 4:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.37%chance

10348

OptionVotes

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NO

1256

943

Will a South American country be the next world cup champion in 2026?

Nov 8, 5:36 AMJul 20, 3:59 AM

30%chance

9196

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NO

258

181

Resolves NO at 1K traders, unless YES voters have 1000-3000 shares each on average (excluding extremes, see rules)

Feb 29, 8:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.14%chance

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214

50

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