Talking News

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.8%chance

423135059

OptionVotes

YES

3277

1565

In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Feb 20, 10:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

70%chance

41374347

OptionVotes

YES

3175

1920

Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?

Aug 13, 1:00 PMAug 13, 10:59 PM

52.64%chance

954178

OptionVotes

YES

3352

3255

If I spend up to another 100 hours talking to Timothy B. Lee about AI existential risk, will it be productive?

Dec 3, 9:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.64%chance

282050

OptionVotes

YES

3004

2533

Will there be peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in 2024?

Sep 5, 7:31 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.98%chance

16048362

OptionVotes

YES

2899

624

Will the United States and Russia hold nuclear arms control talks in 2024?

Dec 2, 4:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.86%chance

455783

OptionVotes

YES

4990

968

In 2024, will the US and Iran hold talks to limit Iran's nuclear program--e.g., to revive or replace the JCPOA?

Dec 2, 6:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.25%chance

372133

OptionVotes

YES

2094

884

In 2028, will at least 35m (1/10) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Mar 17, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.54%chance

17424

OptionVotes

YES

1036

969

Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?

May 26, 12:16 PMMay 26, 1:59 PM

67.54%chance

374297

OptionVotes

YES

1443

693

In 2028, will at least 100m Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Mar 17, 7:03 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

15361

OptionVotes

YES

1129

947

By EOY 2024, commercial service to talk to a simulated loved one who passed away

Nov 12, 1:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.38%chance

261879

OptionVotes

YES

1380

538

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?

Sep 24, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.08%chance

341837

OptionVotes

YES

1039

876

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Talking News

Prediction markets for Talking

Prediction markets for Talking

Prediction markets for Talking

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?

If I spend up to another 100 hours talking to Timothy B. Lee about AI existential risk, will it be productive?

Will there be peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in 2024?

Will the United States and Russia hold nuclear arms control talks in 2024?

In 2024, will the US and Iran hold talks to limit Iran's nuclear program--e.g., to revive or replace the JCPOA?

In 2028, will at least 35m (1/10) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?

In 2028, will at least 100m Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

By EOY 2024, commercial service to talk to a simulated loved one who passed away

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Talking

Prediction markets for Talking

Prediction markets for Talking

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?

If I spend up to another 100 hours talking to Timothy B. Lee about AI existential risk, will it be productive?

Will there be peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in 2024?

Will the United States and Russia hold nuclear arms control talks in 2024?

In 2024, will the US and Iran hold talks to limit Iran's nuclear program--e.g., to revive or replace the JCPOA?