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Sway News
Top stories
Lady Gaga wows Las Vegas & Pennsylvania with new covers, outfits, and performances
Authors
4
10 days
Culture
Prediction markets for Sway
Prediction markets for Sway
Will the release of any 2024 Presidential election model sway Manifold’s forecast by at least 5 percentage points?
Mar 13, 9:42 PM
Dec 1, 6:59 AM
27.44%
chance
6
131
Option
Votes
YES
NO
230
146
Will credible news reports say that the CIA is using Taylor Swift as an asset to sway the 2024 POTUS election?
Feb 3, 11:05 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
3.42%
chance
6
255
Option
Votes
YES
NO
425
128
Will any AI model be capable of involuntarily hypnotizing human beings by EoY 2025?
Jun 7, 2:15 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
7.35%
chance
62
9320
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3550
282
Will I still be using a smartphone in a decade?
Nov 24, 8:22 AM
Nov 30, 11:59 PM
83.19%
chance
15
367
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1066
971
By 2029 will an AI convince a human to help it (successfully) escape containment?
Mar 4, 2:21 AM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
55.89%
chance
35
1593
Option
Votes
NO
YES
980
963
Will LLMs (or similar AI systems) be meaningfully integrated into US public school education by 2025?
May 21, 8:31 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
7.18%
chance
4
234
Option
Votes
YES
NO
324
85
Will XTC/MDMA be legalized anywhere in the world before 2035
Jun 16, 10:01 PM
Dec 31, 11:01 PM
82%
chance
4
231
Option
Votes
NO
YES
182
46
Will I believe my prediction about AI enabling more SWEs to solve less lucrative problems by shrinking team sizes to have been fulfilled by EoY 2030
Jan 6, 5:53 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
68.12%
chance
7
219
Option
Votes
NO
YES
184
127
Make me doubt whether creating house-elves is morally okay.
Oct 17, 4:29 PM
0
0
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Lady Gaga wows Las Vegas & Pennsylvania with new covers, outfits, and performances
Authors
4
10 days
Culture
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