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Prediction markets for Support

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027?

Aug 23, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.77%chance

697599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7303

3834

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?

Dec 18, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.88%chance

3411218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6635

3004

Will Anthropic add voice support to Claude within ~3 months? (before oct 24)

Jun 25, 3:43 AMSep 30, 9:59 PM

50.92%chance

222307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

982

Who will come out in support of Joe Biden dropping out (before it happens)?

Jun 28, 3:08 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

5018468

Will macOS Sequoia (15) be the last major version of macOS to support Macs with Intel CPU’s?

Jun 16, 12:16 AMJun 1, 1:59 PM

45.39%chance

3100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

912

Will Chrome, Safari, or Firefox add native support for local LLMs in 2024? (Opera just did)

Apr 5, 7:48 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.32%chance

765898

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1673

820

Will Anthropic add web browsing support to Claude within ~3 months? (before Oct 24)

Jun 26, 5:21 AMOct 1, 9:59 PM

42.04%chance

8386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

852

Will NYC permanently close another subway station before Nintendo ends online support for the Switch?

Jan 25, 6:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

51%chance

1047

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

997

Will Republicans support embryo selection for intelligence more than Democrats?

Jun 30, 1:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29%chance

14249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

971

Will OpenAI add folder support to ChatGPT in 2024?

Feb 8, 2:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.28%chance

10263

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

969

Will we discover a new planet capable of supporting human life by 2035?

Jan 11, 12:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.85%chance

12372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

984

Will Unreal Engine officially support development in Rust before 2030?

Sep 9, 3:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.55%chance

10131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

956

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Ukraine Gets Final €1.5 Billion of €18 Billion EU Aid for 2023, Plus Global Support
Authors
15
6 months
Ukraine
World

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