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Prediction markets for Supes

Will Homelander ever win a fair fight against another supe (not winning via surprise attack)?

Jan 27, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

96

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Jul 25, 8:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.85%chance

654152512845

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90550

14739

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

50.16%chance

1035402179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4354

4322

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15%chance

8181750453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20466

11266

[100x Fine] Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Sep 11, 2:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.5%chance

68584940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19532

10508

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.13%chance

29784017

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4249

3985

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 31, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

29%chance

502368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

837

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

26%chance

101196721

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1310

1083

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33%chance

17262029

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2278

1673

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?

Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.48%chance

22270622

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2548

1874

Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)?

Jul 26, 2:17 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

4.22%chance

13989315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32920

629

Will SpaceX land a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight, in 2024?

Nov 11, 9:26 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

59.86%chance

95118851

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1270

600

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'THE BOYS' Season 4: Eric Kripke Teases New Supes in The Seven, Making Homelander More Dangerous
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