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Prediction markets for Superhuman AI

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.25%chance

12323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

975

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.43%chance

757989

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1113

956

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

26.4%chance

16782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

980

Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.

Dec 31, 3:39 PMDec 9, 11:59 PM

69.52%chance

321331

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1150

909

Will an AI be able to play 3-person Monopoly Deal or an equivalent card game at a superhuman level by the end of 2025?

Jan 19, 11:49 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

79.83%chance

10329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

973

Will "There are (probably) no superhuman Go AIs: st..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Jun 24, 10:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.91%chance

11438

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

958

Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?

Jan 21, 2:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.14%chance

7141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

132

Will AIs make use of tFUS or TMS for superhuman persuasion? (by 2035)

Nov 25, 2:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.56%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

51

By EOY 2034, what unexpected views of math will be changed by (superhuman) AI?

Mar 21, 9:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6250

Will AIs pay people to get their fMRI/EEG scans to model their brains for superhuman persuasion? (by 2035)

Nov 25, 2:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.7%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

75

Will AI suggest people do tFUS or psychedelics to make it more capable of superhuman persuasion on them by EOY 2029?

Feb 12, 7:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.18%chance

433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

92

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