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Superhuman 2.0 Launches with AI and Multiplayer Features for 1 Billion Professionals
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5
10 days
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Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.25%chance

12323

OptionVotes

YES

1045

975

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.43%chance

757989

OptionVotes

YES

1113

956

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

26.4%chance

16782

OptionVotes

YES

998

980

Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.

Dec 31, 3:39 PMDec 9, 11:59 PM

69.52%chance

321331

OptionVotes

YES

1150

909

Will an AI be able to play 3-person Monopoly Deal or an equivalent card game at a superhuman level by the end of 2025?

Jan 19, 11:49 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

79.83%chance

10329

OptionVotes

YES

1035

973

By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments?

Nov 15, 5:00 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.22%chance

162710

OptionVotes

YES

1130

949

Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all Atari environments by 2025?

Apr 8, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.31%chance

14398

OptionVotes

YES

1208

878

Will we have a superhuman mathematician by the beginning of 2026 (as defined here: https://twitter.com/ChrSzegedy/status/1598341927828594688)?

Dec 4, 11:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.56%chance

302206

OptionVotes

YES

1901

774

Will LLMs be worse than human level at forecasting when they are superhuman at most things?

Feb 22, 8:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45.48%chance

11371

OptionVotes

YES

1035

879

Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all OpenAI gym environments by 2025?

Apr 8, 5:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.19%chance

13341

OptionVotes

YES

1082

919

Will "There are (probably) no superhuman Go AIs: st..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Jun 24, 10:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.91%chance

11438

OptionVotes

YES

1178

958

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Prediction markets for Superhuman

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Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.

Will an AI be able to play 3-person Monopoly Deal or an equivalent card game at a superhuman level by the end of 2025?

By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments?

Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all Atari environments by 2025?

Will we have a superhuman mathematician by the beginning of 2026 (as defined here: https://twitter.com/ChrSzegedy/status/1598341927828594688)?

Will LLMs be worse than human level at forecasting when they are superhuman at most things?

Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all OpenAI gym environments by 2025?

Will "There are (probably) no superhuman Go AIs: st..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for Superhuman

Prediction markets for Superhuman

Prediction markets for Superhuman

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.

Will an AI be able to play 3-person Monopoly Deal or an equivalent card game at a superhuman level by the end of 2025?

By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments?

Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all Atari environments by 2025?