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Prediction markets for Study

Will every non-Trump US president have studied at law school or served in the military until 2040?

Apr 13, 6:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

32.23%chance

135490

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2106

1843

Will the Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Study by the LEVF succeed in increasing mouse lifespan 12 months?

Jan 9, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.16%chance

272070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

981

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Sep 13, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.25%chance

10193

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

973

[Metaculus] Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

May 18, 4:42 PMJan 2, 9:00 AM

29.47%chance

7810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1547

646

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.36%chance

14161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

963

will the scarlet maintain a daily language study streak throughout 2024?

Jan 11, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.78%chance

10663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1082

939

Will an independent RCT study evaluating Silexan for anxiety find a standardized effect size greater than 0.5?

May 18, 7:58 PMMay 25, 8:59 PM

28.24%chance

13793

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1146

904

will >=1/2 of people in a representative study be found to have no or minimal internal monologue?

Mar 7, 8:04 AMMar 14, 6:59 AM

22.26%chance

311285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

940

If a definitive genetic study of race and intelligence gets performed, what will the W/B genetic g difference be?

Mar 7, 9:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.91%chance

123595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

949

Will the Texas Legislature commission a study on split-rate property tax before 2025?

Dec 14, 5:47 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

58%chance

10188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

965

Will Neuralink's FDA study appear on clinicaltrials.gov in 2024?

Jan 9, 8:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88.59%chance

221293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1521

856

Will studies of wide binaries using Gaia DR4 provided robust evidence for MOND?

Aug 29, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.82%chance

5226945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1916

723

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