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Prediction markets for Still Into You
Prediction markets for Still Into You
Would you still love your partner if they turned into a worm?
Feb 11, 3:21 PM
22
0
What will be true of season 1 of the new Harry Potter reboot series?
Feb 24, 11:34 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 AM
42
5198
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
Mar 14, 8:29 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
60%
chance
181
21792
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2412
1287
(5000M subsidy) Will I (porby) think "goal agnosticism" as a concept is still relevant/useful at the end of 2024?
Oct 9, 9:15 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
60.75%
chance
8
668
Option
Votes
NO
YES
5813
4703
What will happen to Taiwan before 2050?
Apr 13, 3:11 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
31
3358
What will Roberto De Zerbi's coaching job be on 1st September 2024?
May 18, 3:38 PM
Sep 1, 8:59 PM
14
18108
If Donald Trump wins the 2024 election and is sworn in as president, will he still be president in 2030?
Dec 31, 1:23 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
5.6%
chance
13
1406
Option
Votes
NO
YES
971
953
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 PM
332
289604
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Feb 20, 10:38 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
43.51%
chance
262
60438
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2541
1886
2024 Georgia (US) State Senate District 48 election winner
Apr 27, 5:53 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
8
444
🔓What will happen before RSA-2048 encryption is widely considered broken?
Feb 22, 6:05 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
26
5795
When will we have real money trading on Manifold?
Apr 17, 2:38 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
15
2073
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Paramore Debuts Talking Heads Cover at Taylor Swift's Eras Tour in Paris with Setlist Update
Authors
7
2 months
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