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Prediction markets for Statistics Day

Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?

Oct 26, 5:58 PMNov 6, 5:59 AM

45.7%chance

8617939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1945

945

Will my stock trading model exceed 100% CAGR?

Jan 23, 3:07 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

18.37%chance

369823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

910

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Oct 13, 4:17 PMJul 2, 5:00 PM

74.38%chance

363184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1230

810

Will I donate my kidney before 2026?

Nov 2, 5:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.25%chance

14662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1310

221

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.36%chance

14938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

916

Will Manifold Reach 2000 Daily Active Users in Jul 2024?

Feb 2, 11:23 PMAug 1, 3:59 AM

57.56%chance

11463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

87

Will Manifold Reach 2000 Daily Active Users in Aug 2024?

Feb 2, 11:23 PMSep 1, 3:59 AM

69.57%chance

758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

139

Will 538's 2024 Presidential Election model change by at least 10 percentage points, start to finish?

May 18, 8:32 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

77.56%chance

8196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

320

164

[Metaculus] Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?

Oct 12, 10:34 PMJan 2, 10:34 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

137

Will Manifold Reach X number of Monthly Active Users in 2024?

Jan 2, 8:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

108932

Will Manifold Reach 2000 Daily Active Users in Sep 2024?

Feb 2, 11:23 PMOct 1, 3:59 AM

70.53%chance

651

OptionVotes

NO

YES

148

116

By How Much Does Vitamin D₃ Improve Meditative Absorption in a Self-Blinded RCT?

Nov 29, 10:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11705

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