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Prediction markets for State of the Nation

Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state by the end of 2027?

Apr 18, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.22%chance

31996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

983

981

Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state by the end of 2029?

Apr 18, 8:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.96%chance

402098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1316

613

Will a candidate that is neither backed by the Republican Party or the Democratic Party run in the 2024 United States presidential election and receive at least 5% of the national popular vote?

Jan 13, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.92%chance

14769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

617

Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state by the end of 2026?

Jun 13, 12:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.43%chance

141511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2104

475

Will a human from any nation other than the United States land on the Moon and successfully return by the end of 2030?

Nov 13, 11:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.47%chance

211097

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1163

859

Which country will be the next to become an official member state of the United Nations?

Apr 24, 7:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22834

Will a human from any nation other than the United States land on the Moon and successfully return by the end of 2040?

Nov 19, 12:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.24%chance

6103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

131

Will any of the United Nations states completely abolish copyright by 2030?

Feb 2, 9:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.07%chance

8200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

141

If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?

Jan 24, 11:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

603217

Will there be a conflict between 3 or more nation states in the middle east before 2025? [Note nation states]

Nov 4, 10:57 AMNov 9, 11:59 PM

20.44%chance

966632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1908

495

Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state before Ukraine joins NATO?

Apr 19, 12:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25%chance

20440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

909

Will Palestine become a full United Nations member state before 2030?

Nov 17, 7:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.39%chance

211033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

978

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