State of Exception News

What will be the results of the 2024 US presidential election (compared to 2020)?

Apr 11, 1:15 PMNov 4, 12:00 PM

6104

Will there be any upsets in the 2024 US Presidential election?

May 19, 11:40 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.15%chance

302120

OptionVotes

YES

1203

831

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

50.54%chance

341600

OptionVotes

YES

1067

867

Will there be a conflict between 3 or more nation states in the middle east before 2025? [Note nation states]

Nov 4, 10:57 AMNov 9, 11:59 PM

20.44%chance

966632

OptionVotes

YES

1908

495

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

1107

903

Will one of the monthly "has weak AGI been achieved" polls regress during 2024?

Jun 9, 4:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.86%chance

10457

OptionVotes

YES

1389

720

Will all the Great Lake States (minus Ohio and Indiana) vote as a unified bloc in 2024?

Sep 11, 1:04 AMNov 6, 4:59 AM

29.47%chance

13319

OptionVotes

YES

1103

939

Will any US state ban contraception by 2030?

Jan 3, 12:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

301520

OptionVotes

YES

1026

979

Will the US change to and retain permanent Daylight Savings Time before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.67%chance

13973

OptionVotes

YES

1494

689

Will the US change to permanent Standard Time before 2030?

Oct 30, 5:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.03%chance

271531

OptionVotes

YES

1251

871

Will Clallam County, Washington keep its streak and vote for presidential winner in the 2024 presidential election?

Nov 5, 10:21 PMNov 6, 10:59 PM

62.32%chance

10186

OptionVotes

YES

1016

988

Will at least 30% of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI had been achieved before July 23, 2024?

Jul 2, 11:42 AMJul 31, 3:59 AM

16.83%chance

281601

OptionVotes

YES

2223

450

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State of Exception News

Prediction markets for State of Exception

Prediction markets for State of Exception

Prediction markets for State of Exception

What will be the results of the 2024 US presidential election (compared to 2020)?

Will there be any upsets in the 2024 US Presidential election?

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

Will there be a conflict between 3 or more nation states in the middle east before 2025? [Note nation states]

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Will one of the monthly "has weak AGI been achieved" polls regress during 2024?

Will all the Great Lake States (minus Ohio and Indiana) vote as a unified bloc in 2024?

Will any US state ban contraception by 2030?

Will the US change to and retain permanent Daylight Savings Time before 2030?

Will the US change to permanent Standard Time before 2030?

Will Clallam County, Washington keep its streak and vote for presidential winner in the 2024 presidential election?

Will at least 30% of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI had been achieved before July 23, 2024?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for State of Exception

Prediction markets for State of Exception

Prediction markets for State of Exception

What will be the results of the 2024 US presidential election (compared to 2020)?

Will there be any upsets in the 2024 US Presidential election?

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

Will there be a conflict between 3 or more nation states in the middle east before 2025? [Note nation states]

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Will one of the monthly "has weak AGI been achieved" polls regress during 2024?

Will all the Great Lake States (minus Ohio and Indiana) vote as a unified bloc in 2024?