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Prediction markets for Startups

Will 2022 Atlas Fellows launch startups worth >$100 million by the end of 2024?

Jan 24, 6:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.56%chance

6717156

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1186

917

Will Dominic Cummings launch a new "startup" party before the next UK General Election?

Aug 15, 12:49 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

6.87%chance

406682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4977

1151

A startup in a programming language derived from homotopy type theory raises $10M by 2030

May 16, 6:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.03%chance

13143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

991

Will I recommend using AWS Lambda for your B2B startup?

Jul 2, 10:45 PMMar 2, 7:59 AM

52.36%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

954

Would I be able to raise at least 1 million USD for a startup in the next 2 years?

Jun 27, 8:26 PMDec 31, 3:59 AM

32.27%chance

271740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

846

Will there be a $100M+ startup valuation from a laid-off Xoogler by EOY 2024?

Mar 21, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.24%chance

12288

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

990

Will I launch a startup by the end of 2026?

Jun 18, 3:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33%chance

16359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

994

990

Will Taco Tuesday manifest any new startups?

Jun 11, 7:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51%chance

13195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

964

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26%chance

17479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

905

Will any medical+AI/LLM startup surpass 1b estimated valuation anytime through 2024?

Sep 13, 6:19 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

44.71%chance

15406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

991

Will Google DeepMind researchers leave to form a new startup named 'Holistic', in 2024?

Jan 19, 11:12 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

29.95%chance

642864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1591

576

Will micro-nations become the new startups by 2030?

Jan 27, 12:06 PMFeb 4, 4:59 AM

14.55%chance

231795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

968

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