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Prediction markets for Space Game

Will Kurzgesagt's new Space Birds game be free to play?

Jun 10, 5:05 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

11.53%chance

153475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2770

361

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33%chance

654091

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1455

1068

By the end of 2024, will there be an LLM prompt that can reliably solve the NYT Connections puzzle?

Jan 9, 3:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.82%chance

737617

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1631

608

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.24%chance

696475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1684

1350

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.88%chance

582297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1274

1258

By the two-year anniversary of its release, will Kerbal Space Program 2 have more active players than KSP 1?

May 10, 10:42 PMFeb 25, 6:59 AM

10%chance

2832358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1681

797

Tennis-like sport played on another planet or in space by end 2036

Oct 8, 6:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.15%chance

13328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

945

Will Nintendo's next console generation have VR?

Jun 7, 1:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.37%chance

17561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

948

If I play Kerbal Space Program instead of waiting for the sequel, will I regret it?

Dec 17, 5:37 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

7.48%chance

12496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2201

803

Will Kerbal Space Program 2 have Very Positive (85+) recent reviews on Steam two years after early access release?

Mar 8, 5:49 PMFeb 25, 7:59 AM

4.81%chance

191958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3314

623

SBF does an interview with Effective Ethical World Domination before July 2024

Mar 5, 10:27 AMJul 1, 3:59 PM

2.06%chance

125772

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6705

629

When will the Steam workshop version of Save our Ship be compatible with the current version of Rimworld?

Mar 7, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

261

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UCF Dominates Space Game, Upsets No. 15 Oklahoma State 45-3
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