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Prediction markets for Show Me The Money

Will any Manifold user withdraw at least $1000 from Manifold "prize points" in 2024?

Apr 24, 4:07 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59%chance

798901

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2574

2232

Will any LLM released by EOY 2025 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic?

Sep 20, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.88%chance

423237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1827

1226

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will any LLM released by EOY 2024 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic?

Sep 20, 11:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.17%chance

704462

OptionVotes

NO

YES

985

981

Will my stock trading model exceed 100% CAGR?

Jan 23, 3:07 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

18.37%chance

369823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

910

Will Jim Cramer be wrong about Nvidia ?

Mar 8, 7:19 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

42.77%chance

10244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1058

945

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

Jan 4, 3:28 PMDec 21, 7:59 AM

98.76%chance

4766138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16496

5623

Will the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030?

Nov 15, 1:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.35%chance

9264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

531

312

Google Maps Mega Market - all feature ideas, destroy the monopoly pl SEC, by end 2024

Nov 26, 3:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

213403

Will Eliezer's tweet on Artists needing to switch jobs in 6 to 24 months hold up?

Nov 26, 3:14 PMDec 3, 2:59 PM

654448

Will you be able to Tip during live streams on Twitter / X in 2024?

Jan 4, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52.44%chance

7302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

104

Will "impact markets" distribute more than $10m of grant funding before 2030?

Nov 1, 10:00 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

73.01%chance

442

OptionVotes

NO

YES

245

182

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