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Shor News
Prediction markets for Shor
Prediction markets for Shor
Will Rep. Dean Phillips have at least one conversation with David Shor?
Oct 21, 9:25 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
28.09%
chance
2
55
Option
Votes
YES
NO
100
51
Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?
Mar 28, 7:22 PM
Jan 1, 12:01 AM
14.74%
chance
9
329
Option
Votes
YES
NO
362
158
Who will win the 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics?
Apr 22, 3:11 PM
Jan 1, 6:59 AM
10
333
Who will win a Nobel Prize before 2030? [Unlinked free response]
Oct 10, 5:21 AM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
10
523
Who will be the next Democratic president of the United States?
Apr 8, 9:54 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
30
819
In 2024, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt?
Mar 2, 7:00 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
62.11%
chance
49
1277
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1646
1621
[Short-fuse / hot take] Will the IMO Gold by 2025 Market be Above* 30% for a 1-month window before August 1, 2024?
Apr 27, 7:48 AM
Aug 2, 6:59 AM
8%
chance
18
18995
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3391
406
In 2025, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt?
Mar 2, 7:02 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
81.97%
chance
40
1086
Option
Votes
NO
YES
2297
1718
Will there be realistic AI generated short films by the end of 2024?
Feb 16, 4:17 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
42.1%
chance
17
1055
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1073
922
Will there be a supply shortage for Nvidia data center GPUs by the end of 2024?
Apr 12, 5:33 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
69.71%
chance
11
170
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1045
968
Will PRL-8-53 seem to improve Tetraspace's measured short-term memory?
Oct 11, 9:30 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
35.84%
chance
7
189
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1088
1009
A single neural network will win multiple top short story awards (for many stories) before 2026. No editing.
May 19, 4:41 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
24.08%
chance
15
417
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1144
929
Articles
Latest stories
Moldova Targets Ilan Shor, Yevgenia Gutsul in Crackdown on Pro-Russian Treason
Authors
9
2 months
Ukraine
Crime
World
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