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Prediction markets for She Needed the Attention

In 2030, which AI paper will have the most citations?

May 12, 4:23 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

1188

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Nov 16, 7:02 PMJan 31, 11:30 PM

61.48%chance

12121854

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4036

3230

Is Attention All You Need?

Nov 16, 5:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.19%chance

513728

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1429

565

Who will be the first Attention-Is-All-You-Need Coauthor to Return to being employed by Alphabet?

Jul 12, 5:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12300

Will Donald Trump "overstep" the negative attacks on Nikki Haley before the end of the Republican primary?

Jan 25, 5:02 AMAug 1, 3:59 AM

28.5%chance

12281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

934

Will YouTube resolutely address the problem of clickbait thumbnails and video titles by 2029?

Mar 12, 3:15 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.81%chance

11226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

942

Will Apple release a cheap Vision Pro before they release a “soundbar”?

Oct 18, 10:08 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

74.34%chance

10307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

900

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

Dec 12, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

31.92%chance

30850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

864

Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?

Jun 11, 12:13 PMDec 11, 10:59 PM

15.26%chance

382311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

970

Will the House vote on removing Mike Johnson as Speaker as a result of his proposed budget deal?

Jan 23, 9:18 PMAug 29, 3:59 AM

18.38%chance

577309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1855

654

Will a RWKV-family model take place in the top-10 of LMSYS Chatbot Arena by the end of 2024?

Jan 29, 5:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.36%chance

121946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1484

898

Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2024?

Jan 2, 9:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.17%chance

342309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

976

963

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