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Prediction markets for Shared Goals

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.38%chance

6823983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26232

3281

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76%chance

10537902

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11105

2804

Will Manifold implement robust and successful incentives for publicizing information?

Nov 14, 11:09 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.5%chance

22803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

907

Will Republicans win 52 or more Senate seats as a result of the 2024 election?

Sep 5, 10:32 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

52.85%chance

21454

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

966

Will Manifold reach 15,000 daily active users (7-day average) before Oct 1st?

Feb 20, 9:59 AMOct 1, 6:59 AM

8%chance

971142832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2216

979

Will world coin be over 3$ at the end of 2024

Dec 15, 8:53 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

68.56%chance

173806

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

934

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.88%chance

161520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1243

874

Will members of the EA community create an EA-focused university by 2030?

Nov 1, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15%chance

361811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1676

785

Will the worldwide electric car adoption curve reach it's steepest point by 2030?

Mar 2, 10:09 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

83.81%chance

13365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

911

Will I run 800km this year?

Feb 20, 8:53 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM

84.39%chance

11672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1262

919

Will effective altruism be "winning" over effective accelerationism at the end of 2024?

Dec 30, 9:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

51.24%chance

281319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

901

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

20.83%chance

13485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

756

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Huddersfield (@htafc) Launches 'Terriers Together' with British Future (@britishfuture)
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