Shameless News

Will the name of Nintendo's next console include a number?

Aug 4, 9:19 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

24.35%chance

462138

OptionVotes

YES

1125

937

Will any Twitter account with at least 10,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2024?

Jan 2, 9:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65%chance

13363

OptionVotes

YES

1050

964

By 2033, will at least one top-10 dating app allow users to rank people?

Mar 11, 11:47 PMMar 11, 11:59 PM

32%chance

12248

OptionVotes

YES

1121

909

Will someone hack the Las Vegas Sphere by the end of 2024?

Jan 2, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.31%chance

171191

OptionVotes

YES

1430

897

Will a US semiconductor fab begin volume production of 3nm chips in 2024?

Jan 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.42%chance

13406

OptionVotes

YES

1137

958

Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2024?

Jan 2, 9:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.17%chance

342309

OptionVotes

YES

976

963

Peru Stock (permanent)

Apr 8, 8:04 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

455

OptionVotes

YES

Will the next nice number be found by a Proofnik?

Jan 6, 8:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38%chance

7147

OptionVotes

YES

169

Will Manifold support decision markets by the end of 2024?

Jan 2, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.71%chance

4103

OptionVotes

YES

174

Will any Twitter account with at least 100,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2024?

Jan 2, 9:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.17%chance

5352

OptionVotes

YES

163

What will be the first neutron star radius measured, in km?

Jul 14, 7:07 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

39.5%chance

556

OptionVotes

YES

265

222

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Shameless News

Prediction markets for Shameless

Prediction markets for Shameless

Prediction markets for Shameless

Will the name of Nintendo's next console include a number?

Will any Twitter account with at least 10,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2024?

By 2033, will at least one top-10 dating app allow users to rank people?

Will someone hack the Las Vegas Sphere by the end of 2024?

Will a US semiconductor fab begin volume production of 3nm chips in 2024?

Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2024?

Peru Stock (permanent)

Will the next nice number be found by a Proofnik?

Will Manifold support decision markets by the end of 2024?

Will any Twitter account with at least 100,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2024?

What will be the first neutron star radius measured, in km?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Shameless

Prediction markets for Shameless

Prediction markets for Shameless

Will the name of Nintendo's next console include a number?

Will any Twitter account with at least 10,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2024?

By 2033, will at least one top-10 dating app allow users to rank people?

Will someone hack the Las Vegas Sphere by the end of 2024?

Will a US semiconductor fab begin volume production of 3nm chips in 2024?

Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2024?

Peru Stock (permanent)

Will the next nice number be found by a Proofnik?