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Prediction markets for Service Day

Will RFK Jr. receive Secret Service protection before election day?

Feb 17, 7:49 AMNov 6, 6:59 AM

35.05%chance

171068

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

926

Reparations by 2030?

Feb 10, 10:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.31%chance

27531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

941

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56.32%chance

271336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

925

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027?

Jun 14, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.23%chance

331272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

917

Will Hilo Airport (ITO) offer frequent direct passenger flights to the U.S. mainland in 2024?

Dec 16, 5:14 AMJan 1, 9:59 AM

5%chance

24634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6255

1306

Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?

Feb 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

70.34%chance

172705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

913

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.76%chance

505168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1437

849

Will tumblr re-tighten its restrictions on porn in 2024?

Mar 16, 9:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.05%chance

21605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1482

801

Will Jimmy Carter survive the Day of the Dead?

Mar 7, 5:18 AMNov 3, 4:59 AM

43.27%chance

191724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

936

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2029?

Jun 13, 11:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.79%chance

14430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

969

Will Zoox obtain an Autonomous Vehicle Deployment Permit from the CA DMV in 2024

Jan 1, 5:17 AMJan 7, 7:59 AM

37.56%chance

12434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

906

Will Jimmy Carter exist at the end of July 2024?

May 14, 9:52 PMAug 2, 4:59 AM

95.44%chance

5820344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4637

501

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