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Second Chance News
Prediction markets for Second Chance
Prediction markets for Second Chance
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 PM
333
290118
What is the hardest line in fiction, according to Manifold?
Apr 10, 6:46 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
24
3794
UK General Election - which party will win the second most seats?
Mar 22, 9:45 AM
Nov 24, 11:59 PM
154
120049
Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Dec 24, 3:53 AM
Feb 1, 7:59 AM
26.4%
chance
16
782
Option
Votes
YES
NO
998
980
Will UK Labour charge 20% VAT on private school fees within 1 year of winning election? [Potential early resolution]
Sep 27, 9:12 AM
Jan 27, 11:59 PM
78.53%
chance
17
956
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1207
923
How many days will I manage not knowing who won the US election? (1 day=10%)
Mar 15, 5:04 PM
Nov 15, 10:59 PM
59.86%
chance
30
3440
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1363
629
Will the Solar Electric Car Lightyear 2 be shipped before the end of 2026?
Aug 3, 9:02 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
29.88%
chance
5
100
Option
Votes
YES
NO
426
368
Which celebrity will die last in chronological order
Mar 19, 2:01 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
16
5802
๐ Who will be the winners of the Trending Events Tournament 2024? ๐ [แน5000 in prizes!]
Mar 5, 9:34 PM
Jan 1, 1:00 AM
13
595
Will a team that goes 2-2 in group advance to the single elimination round of the NBA In-Season Tournament by 2025?
Nov 15, 4:03 AM
Mar 1, 5:59 AM
4
255
French 2024 parliamentary elections -- multi-question. Final round July 7th.
Jun 30, 5:27 PM
Jul 15, 3:59 AM
25
7603
Will I get adopted a second time by 2030?
Nov 10, 4:19 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
57.07%
chance
5
35
Option
Votes
NO
YES
122
100
Articles
Latest stories
Trump Calls for 'Second Chance' for Bud Light, Anheuser-Busch; Controversy Eases After Super Bowl Ad
Authors
18
5 months
Politics
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