Scots News

If Biden wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Mar 10, 12:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.61%chance

574129

OptionVotes

YES

6020

5763

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.46%chance

276100830

OptionVotes

YES

5123

798

If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Mar 10, 12:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66%chance

617547

OptionVotes

YES

7278

6275

Will Trump win the Presidency in 2024, now that SCOTUS has reversed the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision?

Jan 15, 2:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.59%chance

729460

OptionVotes

YES

3187

2604

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.33%chance

9638551

OptionVotes

YES

3747

1509

Will Trump's Vice Presidential Running Mate be one of Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Elise Stefanik, or Vivek Ramaswamy?

Mar 3, 6:49 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

8.23%chance

11639006

OptionVotes

YES

8746

360

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35%chance

126108302

OptionVotes

YES

1207

1121

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46%chance

1029332

OptionVotes

YES

1730

1390

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.45%chance

11373

OptionVotes

YES

993

978

Will SCOTUS overturn Biden’s AI safety executive order by 2025? ($2600 subsidy)

Oct 30, 11:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.8%chance

262244

OptionVotes

YES

3639

2650

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

85.05%chance

949724

OptionVotes

YES

2225

110

Will Scott Alexander get divorced?

Apr 29, 2:06 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

24.93%chance

28891

OptionVotes

YES

1004

944

Latest stories

King Charles Begins Annual Residence in Scotland with Scaled Back Plans at Palace of Holyroodhouse and Ceremony of the Keys
Authors
5
2 hours
Britain
World
Culture
Sir Alex Ferguson and Jose Mourinho Attend Germany vs Scotland Euro 2024 Opener
Authors
4
18 days
Soccer
Sports
Humza Yousaf Faces Backlash, Popularity Drops as Scots Oppose New Hate Law
Authors
9
3 months
Britain
Crime
World
Team GB reveals Paris 2024 swimming squad with Adam Peaty, Scott, Dawson, Luke Greenbank, and Scots
Authors
6
3 months
Britain
World
Controversy Surrounds Scotland's New Hate Crime Laws, Police Scotland's Handling, and Humza Yousaf
Authors
17
3 months
Britain
Crime
World
Labour Suspends Audrey Dempsey and Others Over Racism, Conservative Rick Payne Also Suspended
Authors
9
3 months
Britain
Crime
World
Scotland's Hate Crime Law Effective April 1 Faces Backlash, 8,000-Case Backlog
Authors
18
3 months
Britain
Crime
World
Dame Esther Rantzen Hails Scotland's Parliament's Historic Assisted Dying Legislation Introduced by Lib Dem MSP Liam McArthur
Authors
18
3 months
Britain
World
Scotland Introduces Historic Assisted Dying Legalization Bill, Supported by Over 75% of Scots for Terminally Ill Individuals
Authors
12
3 months
Britain
World
Covid Inquiry Casts Doubt on Sturgeon's Legacy Amid Lockdown Criticism
Authors
4
5 months
Britain
World
Nicola Sturgeon's Leadership in Doubt as Most Scots Lose Trust Amidst Covid Inquiry
Authors
7
5 months
Britain
World
Sturgeon's Trust Erodes as Covid Inquiry Probes Deleted Messages, Salmond Comments
Authors
17
5 months
Britain
World
SNP's Covid Response Under Fire: Broken Trust, Political Accusations, and Deleted Texts
Authors
17
5 months
Britain
World
Sage Unveils Combined Men's and Women's Six Nations XV Featuring Grand Slam Winners, Sparking Debates and Anticipation
Authors
6
5 months
Rugby
AI
Sports
Sturgeon's Popularity Tanks; Gove Testifies SNP Politicized Covid
Authors
8
5 months
Britain
World
Trust in Former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon Plummets Amid SNP Finances and Covid Scandals, Polls Show
Authors
6
5 months
Britain
World
UK Regions Report Economic Downturn Under Conservative Government, Residents Suffer £12,000-£45,000 Loss
Authors
6
5 months
Britain
World
UK Covid Inquiry Turns Focus to Scottish Decisions in Edinburgh, Sturgeon to Be Questioned on Pandemic Decision-Making
Authors
5
6 months
Britain
World
UK Faces Brutal Near-Record Rail Fare Hike; Labour Party and Unions Slam Decision
Authors
14
6 months
Britain
World
SNP Faces £1.5bn Budget Shortfall, Scrambles Amid Tax Concerns with UK Minister Dispute
Authors
8
7 months
Britain
World
450 ex-players, including Phil Vickery, Gavin Henson, Dafydd James, and Colin Charvis, sue RFU, WRU, and World Rugby over concussion damages
Authors
8
7 months
Economics
Business
Over 450 Ex-Players, Including Lions Quartet Phil Vickery, Gavin Henson, Dafydd James, Colin Charvis, Sue World Rugby, RFU, WRU
Authors
6
7 months
Rugby
Sports
Matt Hancock Denies Accusations of Lying, Blames 'Culture of Fear'; Boris Johnson Delayed Covid Curbs Under Tory Pressure; Six in Ten Scots Want Health Secretary to Resign Over Roaming Charges
Authors
10
7 months
Politics
Six Nations Rugby Congratulates Jamie Ritchie on 100 Caps on St. Andrew's Day
Authors
4
7 months
Sports

Scots News

Prediction markets for Scots

Prediction markets for Scots

Prediction markets for Scots

If Biden wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Will Trump win the Presidency in 2024, now that SCOTUS has reversed the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Will Trump's Vice Presidential Running Mate be one of Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Elise Stefanik, or Vivek Ramaswamy?

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Will SCOTUS overturn Biden’s AI safety executive order by 2025? ($2600 subsidy)

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Will Scott Alexander get divorced?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Scots

Prediction markets for Scots

Prediction markets for Scots

If Biden wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Will Trump win the Presidency in 2024, now that SCOTUS has reversed the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Will Trump's Vice Presidential Running Mate be one of Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Elise Stefanik, or Vivek Ramaswamy?

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?