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Prediction markets for Scopely

Will "Deep Forgetting & Unlearning for Safely-Scope..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Feb 14, 6:49 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.64%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

69

Will AI accelerators improve in FLOPs/watt by 100x of an NVidia H100 by 2033?

Jun 25, 1:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

92%chance

162184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

339

29

Will Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) be convicted?

Sep 28, 12:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

85.54%chance

468273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3530

1247

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

50.54%chance

341600

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

867

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.55%chance

261714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

926

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.52%chance

216782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3277

305

[Metaculus] Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025?

Jul 2, 6:28 PMJan 22, 5:00 PM

24.37%chance

306645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1761

568

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.2%chance

13607

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1250

613

Will the next Millennium Problem be solved by an AI?

Dec 24, 6:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.16%chance

40965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

990

Will another US President hold office for more than two full terms?

Jul 3, 6:08 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

45.39%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

912

Will another police killing in the United States go seriously viral before 2030?

Mar 26, 12:50 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

85.66%chance

33853

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1484

855

Will "The Wayward Realms" be released as Early Access by EOY 2024?

Jun 6, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37.67%chance

3295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

777

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