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Prediction markets for Scenario

Which of the following political scenarios will be true in the following 2024 US Presidential elections?

Mar 6, 5:23 PMNov 5, 10:59 PM

13829256

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.81%chance

252055

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

890

Will global temperature drop by at least 1°C for a year by 2050 (e.g. nuclear winter scenario)?

Jun 29, 12:46 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

49.28%chance

11282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

936

AGI will more likely resemble a multipolar than a singleton scenario.

Nov 14, 8:51 PMNov 22, 7:59 AM

64.47%chance

16466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1082

936

Assuming a potential future war scenario, how will the three main powers align?

Sep 25, 2:37 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

301409

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?

Apr 3, 11:21 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3132

Assuming a potential future World War scenario, how will the three main powers align?

Sep 21, 11:01 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

31895

Will AI autocreate AOE2/AOE4/Total War campaign scenarios from HistoryMarche/Kings and Generals videos by EOY 2025?

Dec 23, 12:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

When will a fast take-off scenario occur?

Feb 12, 1:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14486

Will the Milsford Scenario play out in the U.S. by Thanksgiving, 2024?

Jun 26, 8:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.23%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Which of the following scenarios do you think is most likely to unfold in Myanmar by the end of 2024?

Nov 20, 6:54 AMDec 31, 9:00 PM

3138

A multipolar AGI scenario is safer than a singleton AGI scenario

Nov 14, 9:02 PMNov 23, 7:59 AM

29.84%chance

549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

107

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