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Prediction markets for Scare Me

Will a COVID-19 variant cause a new scare and intermittent lockdowns in multiple countries by end 2025?

Jul 10, 3:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.59%chance

496209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1570

859

Which of the following people will be guests on the podcast Red Scare in 2024? (Add Responses)

Jan 16, 5:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

593

Will Scaring the Hoes be similarly regarded to Madvillany in 20 years?

Apr 9, 5:39 AMApr 9, 11:59 PM

16%chance

4319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

25

Will 2024 prove to be a pivotal year for Cold War 2 as posited by Noah Smith?

Mar 20, 8:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25.21%chance

191082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13210

12847

If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?

Apr 19, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.37%chance

959592

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1993

1938

Will I be laid off before the start of 2025?

Jun 17, 8:06 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

22.75%chance

211428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1843

543

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

48%chance

251064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

904

Will we have full self-driving cars before we have self-sustaining fusion?

Jan 7, 7:06 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.42%chance

362064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

910

Will Hasan Debate Destiny in 2024?

Dec 10, 1:18 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.17%chance

111273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1507

887

Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?

Jan 30, 10:23 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

47.47%chance

29904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

829

UK General Election 2024 - Will Rishi Sunak debate Nigel Farage?

May 28, 11:19 AMJul 5, 10:59 PM

4%chance

286818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4899

204

In mid 2024, will the best OpenAI LLM prejudge step-fathers ? [2 day adjustment]

Nov 13, 5:25 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

84.79%chance

3135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

28

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