Scale News

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33%chance

614252700

OptionVotes

YES

16076

11792

Will there be a large-scale bird flu outbreak in the US in 2024?

Mar 26, 2:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.45%chance

9115763

OptionVotes

YES

12913

8576

Worldcoin scales up to at least 10M World ID sign-ups by August 15, 2024?

Mar 16, 5:09 PMAug 16, 4:59 AM

21.37%chance

183790

OptionVotes

YES

15275

10433

In 2040, will there be a consensus that large-scale fraud occurred in the 2024 US presidential election? [$10k liquid]

Nov 29, 11:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

4278

OptionVotes

YES

280

[Metaculus] Will an LLM at least on the scale of GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?

Oct 4, 3:03 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

89%chance

171855

OptionVotes

YES

1330

915

Will a large scale Alignment Project like The Omega Protocol be funded before 2025?

Sep 12, 7:44 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

13.13%chance

15314326

OptionVotes

YES

7676

737

What will be the half life of Flerovium-298? (Log scale)

Nov 24, 5:22 PMNov 29, 7:59 AM

28.7%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

125

Will Saudi Arabia abandon (or vastly scale back) the NEOM linear city project by 2028?

Feb 18, 11:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.51%chance

13734424

OptionVotes

YES

3003

1078

In 2040, will there be a consensus that large-scale fraud occurred in the 2020 US presidential election? [$10k Liquid]

Nov 29, 11:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.97%chance

232414

OptionVotes

YES

1585

880

Will ≥20 Atlas Fellows be actively working on ambitious projects aimed at large-scale problems? (M2500 subsidy)

Oct 4, 5:15 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

40.1%chance

342511

OptionVotes

YES

1781

1157

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Mar 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17%chance

13511

OptionVotes

YES

1191

927

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.38%chance

18954

OptionVotes

YES

1098

619

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Scale News

Prediction markets for Scale

Prediction markets for Scale

Prediction markets for Scale

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

Will there be a large-scale bird flu outbreak in the US in 2024?

Worldcoin scales up to at least 10M World ID sign-ups by August 15, 2024?

In 2040, will there be a consensus that large-scale fraud occurred in the 2024 US presidential election? [$10k liquid]

[Metaculus] Will an LLM at least on the scale of GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?

Will a large scale Alignment Project like The Omega Protocol be funded before 2025?

What will be the half life of Flerovium-298? (Log scale)

Will Saudi Arabia abandon (or vastly scale back) the NEOM linear city project by 2028?

In 2040, will there be a consensus that large-scale fraud occurred in the 2020 US presidential election? [$10k Liquid]

Will ≥20 Atlas Fellows be actively working on ambitious projects aimed at large-scale problems? (M2500 subsidy)

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Scale

Prediction markets for Scale

Prediction markets for Scale

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

Will there be a large-scale bird flu outbreak in the US in 2024?

Worldcoin scales up to at least 10M World ID sign-ups by August 15, 2024?

In 2040, will there be a consensus that large-scale fraud occurred in the 2024 US presidential election? [$10k liquid]

[Metaculus] Will an LLM at least on the scale of GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?

Will a large scale Alignment Project like The Omega Protocol be funded before 2025?

What will be the half life of Flerovium-298? (Log scale)