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Say More News
Prediction markets for Say More
Prediction markets for Say More
If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?
Feb 3, 4:21 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
73.45%
chance
11
373
Option
Votes
YES
NO
993
978
Will, on average, more than 40% of people say the Monarchy is good for the UK, across 2025?
Sep 19, 4:32 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
59.97%
chance
27
1309
Option
Votes
YES
NO
994
982
When GPT-5 comes out, will more Manifold users say it exceeded or fell below expectations?
May 4, 3:11 PM
Dec 31, 12:59 PM
24
485
June 27th Presidential Debate Prop Bets
Mar 6, 9:08 PM
Jun 29, 6:59 AM
749
402691
What words or phrases will Donald Trump say or write before the election?
Apr 7, 7:59 PM
Nov 19, 4:59 AM
255
169533
What 2+ word phrases will appear unbroken in a front-page NYT headline before 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Feb 28, 8:03 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
146
35229
Trump VP Introduction Prop Bets
Mar 12, 1:28 AM
Jul 9, 6:59 AM
221
21702
What will be true of OpenAI's Sora* model, at the end of 2025? [*see description]
Feb 15, 6:57 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
365
85257
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jun 29, 6:59 PM
331
289087
Which of Casey Newton's 2024 predictions will come true? [Multiple Choice]
Dec 16, 10:40 PM
Jan 1, 6:59 AM
197
18467
What will be true of the next person to walk on the moon? [ADD RESPONSES]
Apr 7, 5:06 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
45
3949
What will be true about the next Oscars Academy Award Best Actor winner in 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
Mar 11, 5:00 AM
Mar 12, 3:59 AM
3
57
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