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Prediction markets for Russian war

Will China invade Taiwan before the end of Ukraine-Russian war?

Sep 2, 10:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

26.1%chance

281224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

810

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US army engage in combat against the Russian army?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

80.06%chance

465822

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2004

499

Will the Ukrainian-Russian war be considered out of a "stalemate" between now and the end of 2024?

Nov 17, 10:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.44%chance

14336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

969

Will another country join the Russian-Ukraine war before it ends?

Dec 18, 10:52 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.5%chance

471840

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1889

766

Will the ICC or similar tribunal find Russians guilty of war crimes re the Nova Kakhovka dam failure?

Jun 6, 1:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.9%chance

15556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

960

Will the Russian Ukraine war ends before 2025?

Mar 5, 1:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.75%chance

21870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1371

884

On the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, will the Russia-Ukraine war still be ongoing?

Apr 8, 7:58 PMFeb 25, 7:59 AM

85.82%chance

331958

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1397

883

Will any more top brass on the Russian side die before the end of the war on Ukraine? [See Description]

Jan 5, 1:34 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

86.39%chance

191001

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1473

831

On the 12th anniversary of the Russian annexation of Crimea, will the Russia-Ukraine war still be ongoing?

Apr 8, 8:01 PMMar 19, 6:59 AM

67.76%chance

10432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

332

178

Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?

Mar 31, 6:42 PMJul 6, 6:59 PM

333289835

Will Ukraine militarily destroy or disable ALL Russian A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft by EOY 2025?

Feb 23, 11:24 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

24.59%chance

7188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

177

176

Will the ICC officially issue arrest warrants for Russian officials on the grounds of genocide?

Feb 22, 10:21 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

53.49%chance

9210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

150

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