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Prediction markets for Run Up
Prediction markets for Run Up
Will the foundation running worldcoin be sued under the GDPR up to and including 31.12.2024
Aug 6, 3:00 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
25.36%
chance
4
153
Option
Votes
YES
NO
137
53
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Mar 24, 2:46 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
198
80091
What will be the most impactful feature developed in 2024?
Mar 1, 7:31 PM
Jan 1, 7:40 AM
127
349679
What will be the most impactful feature developed in 2024? (open for trading)
Apr 4, 3:50 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
8
502
Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?
Jun 9, 9:27 PM
Jul 1, 6:59 AM
52.36%
chance
1
500
Option
Votes
NO
YES
10483
9539
🗓️2024 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (39 DONE)
Jan 28, 7:18 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
68
16249
Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]
Sep 21, 6:40 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
14.91%
chance
21
1534
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1273
913
If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Jan 24, 4:35 AM
Feb 2, 4:59 AM
28.48%
chance
91
5886
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1819
1347
Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:05 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
33.42%
chance
16
2892
Option
Votes
YES
NO
7416
3786
What web/social media/internet usage habits will a majority of Manifold users describe as a "red flag"? [ADD RESPONSES]
Jun 23, 8:06 PM
Mar 1, 4:59 AM
65
30627
What will be true about Trump's running mate / Vice President pick?
Jan 10, 6:58 PM
Jul 31, 3:59 AM
256
40692
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 PM
333
289835
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Nicki Minaj Tops iTunes Portugal Ahead of Afro Nation Festival Performance
Authors
4
5 days
Europe
Celebrities
World
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