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5
12 days
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Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Jul 25, 8:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

4%chance

653852327680

OptionVotes

YES

87722

14854

Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite?

Jan 3, 4:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.36%chance

5601850466

OptionVotes

YES

30870

6590

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.42%chance

8171749895

OptionVotes

YES

21197

11140

[100x Fine] Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Sep 11, 2:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.5%chance

68584940

OptionVotes

YES

19532

10508

Will the "Possible Meissner effect near room temperature" paper by Hongyang Wang be replicated before the end of 2024?

Jan 3, 4:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.65%chance

12695431

OptionVotes

YES

6280

1307

Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)?

Jul 26, 2:17 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

4.22%chance

13989315

OptionVotes

YES

32920

629

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

95.18%chance

306603

OptionVotes

YES

4444

225

Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024?

Jul 26, 2:45 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.16%chance

154498919

OptionVotes

YES

8208

921

Will a room-temperature superconductor with a similar-but-different composition to LK-99 be discovered by 2025?

Aug 2, 10:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.63%chance

156143873

OptionVotes

YES

8276

848

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2039?

Feb 17, 2:23 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

26.18%chance

241323

OptionVotes

YES

1000

937

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?

May 23, 1:11 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

64.27%chance

7810796

OptionVotes

YES

1341

746

Will we have a superconductor at room-temperature and pressure by end of 2030?

Jul 30, 12:28 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.04%chance

9797832

OptionVotes

YES

2299

824

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Prediction markets for Room

Prediction markets for Room

Prediction markets for Room

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite?

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

[100x Fine] Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Will the "Possible Meissner effect near room temperature" paper by Hongyang Wang be replicated before the end of 2024?

Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)?

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024?

Will a room-temperature superconductor with a similar-but-different composition to LK-99 be discovered by 2025?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2039?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?

Will we have a superconductor at room-temperature and pressure by end of 2030?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for Room

Prediction markets for Room

Prediction markets for Room

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite?

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

[100x Fine] Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Will the "Possible Meissner effect near room temperature" paper by Hongyang Wang be replicated before the end of 2024?

Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)?

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?