Rogue News

Will a Trustworthyish account "go rogue" and start resolving markets willy nilly by the end of 2024?

Apr 10, 3:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30.29%chance

9112120

OptionVotes

YES

1565

1173

By the end of 2030, will over a million rogue planets be found?

Feb 13, 11:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.97%chance

25597

OptionVotes

YES

1113

924

By 2029, will there be a public "rogue AI" incident?

Feb 19, 6:51 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89.83%chance

433530

OptionVotes

YES

1499

906

Will "AI catastrophes and rogue deployments" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 17, 11:16 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.34%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

992

Will the U.S. military be defeated by a rogue AI before 2035?

Apr 9, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.59%chance

261787

OptionVotes

YES

1285

919

Is Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI?

Aug 2, 4:39 AMJan 19, 8:14 AM

3.37%chance

404180

OptionVotes

YES

3009

779

Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030?

Mar 19, 8:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.41%chance

9172

OptionVotes

YES

266

187

If Memestiny goes rogue and starts resolving their permanent markets, will Manifold step in to keep them open?

Mar 30, 6:49 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

87.03%chance

7360

OptionVotes

YES

311

126

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?

Sep 13, 6:03 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6412694

Where did COVID-19 come from

Sep 17, 4:16 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7511316

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

Sep 27, 4:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61%chance

6519845

OptionVotes

YES

1059

877

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2040?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.96%chance

4214879

OptionVotes

YES

1165

846

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Rogue News

Prediction markets for Rogue

Prediction markets for Rogue

Prediction markets for Rogue

Will a Trustworthyish account "go rogue" and start resolving markets willy nilly by the end of 2024?

By the end of 2030, will over a million rogue planets be found?

By 2029, will there be a public "rogue AI" incident?

Will "AI catastrophes and rogue deployments" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will the U.S. military be defeated by a rogue AI before 2035?

Is Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI?

Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030?

If Memestiny goes rogue and starts resolving their permanent markets, will Manifold step in to keep them open?

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?

Where did COVID-19 come from

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2040?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Rogue

Prediction markets for Rogue

Prediction markets for Rogue

Will a Trustworthyish account "go rogue" and start resolving markets willy nilly by the end of 2024?

By the end of 2030, will over a million rogue planets be found?

By 2029, will there be a public "rogue AI" incident?

Will "AI catastrophes and rogue deployments" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will the U.S. military be defeated by a rogue AI before 2035?

Is Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI?

Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030?

If Memestiny goes rogue and starts resolving their permanent markets, will Manifold step in to keep them open?

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?

Where did COVID-19 come from

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2040?

Latest stories