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Prediction markets for Robotics

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.42%chance

477155741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13023

12770

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by April 23, 2025?

Apr 30, 6:49 PMApr 24, 4:59 AM

41.41%chance

293443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20723

16106

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2033?

Mar 8, 6:11 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

55%chance

13524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

983

Will Joe Biden be confirmed as an AI animatronic robot before the 2024 U.S. election results are confirmed?

Dec 12, 11:52 PMJan 21, 6:59 AM

3.42%chance

272871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

937

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

73.42%chance

657420

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1368

841

Will we have sex robots that are more sexually stimulating to bang than women by 2030?

Jul 18, 8:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21%chance

252887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

352

145

Will robots be able to load a dishwasher in the next five years?

Sep 23, 4:36 AMSep 24, 6:59 AM

88.55%chance

516484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2204

432

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Mar 17, 3:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

89.52%chance

8011369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1865

1085

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

Mar 30, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.88%chance

521979

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1243

1205

Will humanoid robots be commonplace in the US, by 2040? ($1k mana subsidy)

Nov 4, 1:01 PMJan 2, 6:29 PM

66.99%chance

333042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1955

737

Will there be 1 million bipedal robots by 2033?

Jun 30, 1:56 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

63.87%chance

472457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1216

806

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

12.5%chance

10219584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2931

1538

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