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Prediction markets for Risk

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.91%chance

211534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

913

In a year, will we think that Sam Altman leaving OpenAI reduced AI risk?

Nov 17, 8:54 PMNov 25, 7:59 AM

14.02%chance

520197774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7348

1502

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

95.18%chance

306603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4444

225

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.75%chance

9447154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1409

1310

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?

Apr 5, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.48%chance

22714708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2634

1483

If I spend up to another 100 hours talking to Timothy B. Lee about AI existential risk, will it be productive?

Dec 3, 9:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.64%chance

282050

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3004

2533

MemeFold Financial: Which strange, high risk investment will yield the greatest return by EOY? [COMMENT IDEAS]

May 18, 4:01 PMJan 18, 4:59 AM

6034346

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.47%chance

373858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7844

5349

If humanity survives to 2100, what will experts believe was the correct level of AI risk for us to assess in 2023?

Sep 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.19%chance

14189

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

932

Will existential risk from AI be a topic during the 2024 US presidential debates?

Jun 7, 10:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.55%chance

795766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2728

939

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

Apr 4, 3:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.72%chance

632809

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1530

1044

By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?

Jan 6, 4:19 AMJan 2, 9:59 AM

35.42%chance

411443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

787

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