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Prediction markets for Ridiculousness

Will YouTube channel How Ridiculous break the world record for highest basketball shot by the end of 2025?

May 21, 10:05 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

24.51%chance

472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

41

What is the risk-free interest rate for markets with ridiculously distant resolution dates?

Apr 12, 6:57 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3.22%chance

31441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

599

58

Will Imu be the most beautiful or the most ridiculous thing when revealed

Mar 17, 7:33 PM

90

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

23.88%chance

485491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

964

AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?

Oct 13, 3:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

72.62%chance

364724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

984

951

Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for any administrative division of government before 2060?

Aug 28, 12:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

77%chance

10267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

959

Will smog be a thing of the past in 2123?

Sep 23, 9:03 AMSep 30, 9:59 PM

80.59%chance

13423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

939

Will human-level automated (AI or otherwise) music transcription exist in 2024?

Mar 3, 10:53 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

42.06%chance

27427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

975

Will the White House Press Secretary giggle when asked about AI extinction risks before 2025?

Aug 2, 1:01 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

15.19%chance

263050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

764

Will Taylor Swift do “Billionaire Shit”? 👸💰💸

Apr 7, 2:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.73%chance

18600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

873

Will Global Warming Wipe Out Humanity By 2100?

Jul 23, 10:14 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11.4%chance

12562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

957

Will I stay at Lighthaven overnight by end of September?

Jun 10, 6:22 PMOct 1, 6:59 AM

39.71%chance

236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

81

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