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Prediction markets for Review Journal

[Kalshi] Will near room-temp Meissner effect be reported by a major peer-reviewed journal this year?

Jan 4, 10:56 PMJan 2, 3:00 PM

9.77%chance

4013180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1630

981

What percentage of the reports/papers Rethink Priorities produces in 2024 will get published in peer-reviewed journals?

Jan 8, 10:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.52%chance

8117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

232

115

🔓What will happen before RSA-2048 encryption is widely considered broken?

Feb 22, 6:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

265795

What will be true of the company Safe Superintelligence (SSI) by the end of 2025? (Add Answers)

Jun 19, 6:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6633630

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Jul 25, 8:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

4%chance

654152510409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

87722

14854

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.48%chance

231385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3617

3394

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

36.81%chance

81118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4069

3096

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2040?

Dec 23, 7:50 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30%chance

232017

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

951

Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024?

Jul 26, 2:45 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.16%chance

154498919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8208

921

Is there a temperature and pressure at which LK-99 is superconducting?

Aug 3, 4:45 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

4.13%chance

9656425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8681

446

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.52%chance

216782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3277

305

Will a new fundamental physical force be discovered by January 1, 2040?

May 18, 2:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.8%chance

243702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2610

383

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