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Will Levels.fyi report that software engineer's salaries are lower in 2026 than they were in 2022?

Mar 16, 6:10 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

16.31%chance

9214828

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YES

9238

4574

What will be the official cause of the Prigozhin plane crash as reported by Russia after their investigation?

Aug 23, 5:56 PMJun 30, 5:56 PM

31354327

Will OpenAI release a technical report on a model designed for AI alignment research? (2024)

Mar 26, 1:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.13%chance

7135484

OptionVotes

YES

4318

886

Will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level before 2027?

Jul 14, 1:24 PMJan 2, 12:30 PM

23.9%chance

13280

OptionVotes

YES

1026

861

In 2024, will the IAEA publicly report that Iran has enriched uranium to weapons-grade levels?

Dec 2, 4:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.57%chance

546306

OptionVotes

YES

2919

954

Will China report a deficit in foreign direct investment for at least 2 quarters in 2024?

Dec 2, 7:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.2%chance

322551

OptionVotes

YES

2378

820

Will the bureau of labor report that there were more computer programmers in the US in 2030 than 2023?

Jan 5, 7:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.69%chance

7810580

OptionVotes

YES

2364

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Apr 26, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

73.86%chance

13010893

OptionVotes

YES

1694

1689

In 2024, will India or an international organization officially report an outbreak of wheat blast in India?

Dec 2, 1:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.57%chance

244138

OptionVotes

YES

2446

946

How many active vehicle listings will Turo report as of 12/31/2024?

May 27, 6:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2210

Will I successfully do my internship report in LaTeX ?

Apr 26, 4:33 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

11%chance

252153

OptionVotes

YES

2247

102

Did the "Chinese spy chip" reported by Bloomberg ever exist?

Aug 10, 2:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.02%chance

21475

OptionVotes

YES

1108

946

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Will Levels.fyi report that software engineer's salaries are lower in 2026 than they were in 2022?

What will be the official cause of the Prigozhin plane crash as reported by Russia after their investigation?

Will OpenAI release a technical report on a model designed for AI alignment research? (2024)

Will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level before 2027?

In 2024, will the IAEA publicly report that Iran has enriched uranium to weapons-grade levels?

Will China report a deficit in foreign direct investment for at least 2 quarters in 2024?

Will the bureau of labor report that there were more computer programmers in the US in 2030 than 2023?

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

In 2024, will India or an international organization officially report an outbreak of wheat blast in India?

How many active vehicle listings will Turo report as of 12/31/2024?

Will I successfully do my internship report in LaTeX ?

Did the "Chinese spy chip" reported by Bloomberg ever exist?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Reporter

Prediction markets for Reporter

Prediction markets for Reporter

Will Levels.fyi report that software engineer's salaries are lower in 2026 than they were in 2022?

What will be the official cause of the Prigozhin plane crash as reported by Russia after their investigation?

Will OpenAI release a technical report on a model designed for AI alignment research? (2024)

Will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level before 2027?

In 2024, will the IAEA publicly report that Iran has enriched uranium to weapons-grade levels?

Will China report a deficit in foreign direct investment for at least 2 quarters in 2024?

Will the bureau of labor report that there were more computer programmers in the US in 2030 than 2023?

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

In 2024, will India or an international organization officially report an outbreak of wheat blast in India?

How many active vehicle listings will Turo report as of 12/31/2024?