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Prediction markets for Real Deal
Prediction markets for Real Deal
What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)
May 9, 8:42 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
34.45%
chance
22
17148
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1016
956
Will users under 18 years old be allowed to use Manifold throughout 2024?
Apr 23, 1:55 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
27.34%
chance
42
4317
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1901
946
Will OpenAI complete another $100M+ acquisition in 2024 after Rockset deal?
Jun 21, 8:44 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
54.03%
chance
3
540
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1084
922
3) The terms “large language model” and “LLM” will become less common.
Dec 25, 1:32 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
71.62%
chance
44
1315
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1248
857
When will we be able to chat with an AI convincingly impersonating a famous historical or living person?
Feb 5, 10:08 PM
Jan 2, 10:59 PM
24
886
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9 months
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