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Prediction markets for Reader
Prediction markets for Reader
Will we get to the Kaizenix arc in the Omniscient Reader webtoon before 2025?
Jan 15, 5:55 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
50%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
50
50
Which ten sub-$250 purchases will most significantly improve my quality of life by 2026? [2k Bounty] [Add Suggestions]
Jan 16, 8:49 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
68
3262
Which 10 sub-$100 purchases will most significantly improve my quality of life in 2024? [Add Suggestions]
Mar 26, 3:29 PM
Dec 31, 5:59 AM
30
3621
What will the next big community to join manifold be?
Sep 26, 3:46 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
16
1338
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
13.01%
chance
67
23283
Option
Votes
YES
NO
25539
3382
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
Mar 18, 6:08 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
16.46%
chance
276
100830
Option
Votes
YES
NO
5123
798
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?
Jun 27, 3:49 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
39.04%
chance
127
26724
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1901
992
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?
Jul 13, 11:37 AM
Jan 2, 12:30 PM
30.4%
chance
64
9117
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1379
759
By the end of 2024, will at least one >50 karma LW post be revealed to have been mostly written by AI?
Nov 24, 6:50 PM
Jan 1, 8:42 AM
52.83%
chance
14
212
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1027
971
Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?
Mar 19, 3:37 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
69.57%
chance
20
3843
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1076
955
By the end of 2024, will at least one >100 karma LW post be revealed to have been mostly written by AI?
Nov 24, 6:50 PM
Jan 1, 8:42 AM
19.11%
chance
17
457
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1240
904
In what year will Patrick Rothfuss' book The Doors of Stone be released?
Aug 24, 7:25 AM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
41.84%
chance
24
962
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1058
815
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Latest stories
Apple Unveils Safari Highlights Feature with Machine Learning for iOS 18, Extracts Addresses and Phone Numbers
Authors
4
17 days
Tech
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