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Prediction markets for Quick Count

Will GPT-5 be capable of recursive self-improvement?

Mar 31, 6:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.07%chance

16676554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5622

651

Will I manage to squat 3 plates this year?

Jan 18, 8:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.12%chance

4733590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1555

1483

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33%chance

654091

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1455

1068

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.88%chance

582297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1274

1258

Will a manifold user do something very cool by the end of 2029?

Nov 8, 3:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

30.89%chance

12312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

874

If someone launches a competitor to Manifold, will I judge it to have been at least as successful two years later?

Oct 21, 5:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.15%chance

221473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

903

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

26.4%chance

16782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

980

Elon Musk criticizes China or CCP through 2024

Jul 13, 3:40 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

20.03%chance

472368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1465

819

Will there be at least 10,000 worldwide cases of human infection by HPAI H5N1 before 2025?

May 6, 2:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.16%chance

18826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

988

Will we have high-quality real-time age transitions for video calls before 2026 ends?

Jul 10, 12:58 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

71.77%chance

445803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

909

Elon Musk criticizes China or CCP before 2026.

Oct 12, 5:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

39.14%chance

351868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

587

Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?

Mar 10, 12:47 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

61.14%chance

15195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

960

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