Q1 News

Will AMD have a higher market share of CPUs (all CPUs) than Intel in Q1 2030?

Feb 3, 1:24 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

34.01%chance

13322

OptionVotes

YES

1000

975

Will inflection AI have a model that is 10X the size of original GPT-4 at the end of Q1, 2025?

Jul 31, 6:47 AMMar 31, 3:55 PM

25.57%chance

201147

OptionVotes

YES

1105

937

Scott Alexander's "In 2028, AI movie" market will be resolved in Q1 2028

Sep 23, 3:41 PMApr 2, 9:59 PM

79.05%chance

13342

OptionVotes

YES

1099

956

Will Q1 of 2024 be the last quarter in which the news is not entirely full of AI drama until 2030?

Nov 23, 8:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.51%chance

527051

OptionVotes

YES

1740

880

Will Q4 ‘23, Q1 ‘24, Q2 ‘24, and Q3 ‘24 each show positive RGDP growth?

Jan 3, 4:34 AMJan 1, 4:32 AM

60.64%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

105

Will total stablecoin market cap exceed those of Ethereum and Bitcoin combined by Q1 2025?

Sep 20, 11:40 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

15.6%chance

285

OptionVotes

YES

175

Will I be an L6 engineer at AWS (or faang equivalent) by Q1 2025?

May 16, 6:50 PMMar 31, 10:00 PM

20%chance

9202

OptionVotes

YES

310

165

Will Croatia's tourism revenue in Q1-Q3 2024 be better than in Q1-Q3 2023?

Aug 16, 2:21 PMSep 1, 9:59 PM

75.17%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

130

Will I be able to filter questions by multiple Topics before end of Q1 2025?

Jan 23, 10:27 AMMar 31, 9:59 PM

65%chance

528

OptionVotes

YES

131

Will the Total Number of Netflix Subscribers Worldwide Increase by More Than 5% from Q1 2024 to Q4 2024?

Feb 2, 9:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.21%chance

9320

OptionVotes

YES

431

Will the new Firedancer Solana validator gain 10% of stake weight by Q1 2025?

Mar 20, 4:06 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

60.68%chance

6102

OptionVotes

YES

240

168

When will the quiver.trade futarchy mechanism go live?

Jun 19, 3:32 PMJul 2, 2:59 AM

4431

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Q1 News

Prediction markets for Q1

Prediction markets for Q1

Prediction markets for Q1

Will AMD have a higher market share of CPUs (all CPUs) than Intel in Q1 2030?

Will inflection AI have a model that is 10X the size of original GPT-4 at the end of Q1, 2025?

Scott Alexander's "In 2028, AI movie" market will be resolved in Q1 2028

Will Q1 of 2024 be the last quarter in which the news is not entirely full of AI drama until 2030?

Will Q4 ‘23, Q1 ‘24, Q2 ‘24, and Q3 ‘24 each show positive RGDP growth?

Will total stablecoin market cap exceed those of Ethereum and Bitcoin combined by Q1 2025?

Will I be an L6 engineer at AWS (or faang equivalent) by Q1 2025?

Will Croatia's tourism revenue in Q1-Q3 2024 be better than in Q1-Q3 2023?

Will I be able to filter questions by multiple Topics before end of Q1 2025?

Will the Total Number of Netflix Subscribers Worldwide Increase by More Than 5% from Q1 2024 to Q4 2024?

Will the new Firedancer Solana validator gain 10% of stake weight by Q1 2025?

When will the quiver.trade futarchy mechanism go live?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Q1

Prediction markets for Q1

Prediction markets for Q1

Will AMD have a higher market share of CPUs (all CPUs) than Intel in Q1 2030?

Will inflection AI have a model that is 10X the size of original GPT-4 at the end of Q1, 2025?

Scott Alexander's "In 2028, AI movie" market will be resolved in Q1 2028

Will Q1 of 2024 be the last quarter in which the news is not entirely full of AI drama until 2030?

Will Q4 ‘23, Q1 ‘24, Q2 ‘24, and Q3 ‘24 each show positive RGDP growth?

Will total stablecoin market cap exceed those of Ethereum and Bitcoin combined by Q1 2025?

Will I be an L6 engineer at AWS (or faang equivalent) by Q1 2025?