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Prediction markets for Purpose

Will another person self-immolate in the United States for a political purpose by the end of 2024?

Apr 20, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.75%chance

501819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1111

886

Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?

Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.68%chance

14516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

Will there be another self immolation, for Israel Palestine purpose, this year?

Feb 28, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.48%chance

345456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

989

916

If I'm alive by 2026, will I believe it is due to personal enjoyment of living or altruistic purposes

Jun 20, 5:45 PMJan 1, 5:01 AM

62.93%chance

143667

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

979

Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)

Feb 3, 12:36 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

79.88%chance

21660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1274

864

Will a Ukrainian citizen be deported from the EU for the purpose of forcing them into military conscription?

Apr 27, 10:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

39.1%chance

321025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1352

674

Will general purpose AI models beat average score of human players in Diplomacy by 2028?

Sep 20, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.81%chance

101171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

985

Will cheap, portable, general purpose non-invasive brain-computer interfaces be commercially available by the year 2030?

Sep 14, 12:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.16%chance

271154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

883

Will Elon Musk loan Trump money for the purposes of paying any of his civil judgements before the general election?

Mar 6, 7:14 AMNov 13, 4:59 AM

13.57%chance

321655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

844

Russia detonates nuclear weapon for any purpose before EOY 2024?

Jun 8, 10:21 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.46%chance

748270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3290

304

Was Sam Altman's dismissal from OpenAI primarily due to concerns about the 'dual-use' of AI for military purposes?

Jan 6, 9:56 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

11.67%chance

132396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

960

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically for any purpose by the end of 2028?

Apr 10, 12:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48%chance

8242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

105

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