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Prediction markets for Proms

Will I have a date to Prom 2025?

Jun 17, 9:21 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

24.21%chance

5114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

57

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.92%chance

29384551352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11945

9871

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.38%chance

6823983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26232

3281

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.1%chance

19348237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2002

1337

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.42%chance

162892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7416

3786

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027?

Aug 23, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.67%chance

707676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7325

3825

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.56%chance

16870748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2080

1864

Will an AI be able to create a website via text prompt by end of 2024?

Mar 19, 7:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.41%chance

16345413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2815

327

Will the [non-Trump] frontrunner for 2024 Republican Presidential nominee promise to pardon Trump if they are elected?

Aug 15, 8:16 AMOct 31, 1:29 PM

72.31%chance

5325022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3746

2515

How much mana will be spent in 2024 on promoting content on Manifold (excluding subsidies)?

Jan 1, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71033

Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Oct 10, 5:26 AMOct 17, 6:29 PM

6120080

In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt?

Jul 10, 6:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.26%chance

182157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

977

970

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BBC Defends Sam Smith's Proms Headlining Amid Controversy Over Fans' Concerns About Outfits
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2 months
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