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Top stories

Trump Leads 2024 Polls Amid Project 2025 and October Surprises
Authors
10
1 day
Economics
World
Politics

Prediction markets for Project

Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?

Jul 13, 1:03 AMDec 31, 8:00 AM

70%chance

5012544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

954

Will a large scale Alignment Project like The Omega Protocol be funded before 2025?

Sep 12, 7:44 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

13.13%chance

15314326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7676

737

Will Saudi Arabia abandon (or vastly scale back) the NEOM linear city project by 2028?

Feb 18, 11:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.51%chance

13734424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3003

1078

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

In 2030, will there be at least 50,000 people in whatever the Neom project has evolved into by then?

Aug 2, 7:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.17%chance

332839

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

863

Will ≥20 Atlas Fellows be actively working on ambitious projects aimed at large-scale problems? (M2500 subsidy)

Oct 4, 5:15 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

40.1%chance

342511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1781

1157

In 2025, will I teach people that Projective Geometric Algebra (PGA)'s "dual" is similar to the Fourier transform?

Sep 20, 7:52 AMSep 21, 10:59 PM

48%chance

191284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

452

Will a large-scale, Eliezer-Yudkowsky-approved AI alignment project be funded before 2025?

Sep 14, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

5020474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1491

1023

Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

Oct 26, 10:09 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

38.75%chance

222770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1634

234

Will The Project be an issue in the 2028 election?

Jun 9, 7:14 AMNov 1, 11:59 PM

38.43%chance

301629

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

790

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Sep 13, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.25%chance

10193

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

973

Will a Manhattan/ Apollo type project towards AGI/ ASI be launched? (or has been)

Feb 6, 6:25 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

27.05%chance

13361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

937

Articles

Latest stories

Trump Leads 2024 Polls Amid Project 2025 and October Surprises
Authors
10
1 day
Economics
World
Politics
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4
1 month
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