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Prediction markets for Profiles

Will Julian Assange create Nostr profile in 2024?

Jun 26, 12:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

63.03%chance

4315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1306

766

Will there be another high-profile self-immolation in the US within the next six months?

Apr 20, 5:53 AMOct 27, 6:59 AM

34.75%chance

513231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1384

693

Will there be a high-profile power struggle at Anthropic before 2026?

Nov 20, 1:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.84%chance

28955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1160

905

I make a contribution to AI safety that is endorsed by at least one high profile AI alignment researcher by the end of 2026

Nov 24, 2:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59%chance

12272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

983

Will Manifold become overrun with fake women profiles?

Feb 25, 11:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.44%chance

14681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1170

933

Will a high profile celebrity get cancelled in 2024?

Feb 4, 3:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.18%chance

291245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1280

643

Will a high profile YouTuber quit during Sep 2024?

Feb 4, 3:03 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM

43.65%chance

415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

125

Will Elon Musk have an active 𝕏 profile on January 1, 2030?

Dec 1, 11:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

51.31%chance

8182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

188

146

Will a high profile YouTuber quit during Aug 2024?

Feb 4, 3:03 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

40.39%chance

525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

118

Will there be a high profile power struggle at Inflection AI before 2026?

Nov 22, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.46%chance

257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

62

Will there be a high profile power struggle at Meta before 2026?

Nov 22, 9:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.96%chance

4118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

103

Will I have an active dating profile on Manifold.love in 2024?

Jan 4, 11:13 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

59.18%chance

454

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

102

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